Bajaj Auto Share Price Target 2024 to 2040, Fundamental Analysis {update}

Company Details

• Founded: 1945
• Headquarters: Pune, Maharashtra, India
• Industry: Automotive Manufacturing
• CEO: Rajiv Bajaj
• Products: Bikes & scooters, auto rickshaw, electric vehicles

Promoters

• Bajaj Holdings & Investment Ltd.: 34.18%
• Rajiv Bajaj: 0.27%
• Niraj Bajaj: 0.02%
• Madhur Bajaj: 0.07%

Company Fundamentals

• Business Model: Bajaj Auto operates in the automobile sector, focusing on motorcycles, three-wheelers, and electric vehicles. The company has a strong market presence both domestically and internationally, particularly in premium motorcycles and three-wheelers.
• Key Strengths: Market leadership in the 125cc+ motorcycle segment, with models like Pulsar and the expansion of the Chetak electric scooter line

Financial Health

• EBITDA Margin: 19.7%, up by 180 basis points.
• Free Cash Flow: Nearly ₹6,600 crores, reflecting a 45% year-on-year growth.
• Debt-Equity Ratio: 0.03, showing low leverage

Growth Potential

• Domestic Market: Significant growth in the domestic motorcycle and three-wheeler segments. The company is also expanding into electric vehicles, with Chetak EV sales tripling year-on-year.
• International Expansion: Despite challenging overseas markets, exports were stable, with growth in Latin America and the Middle East compensating for a dip in Africa and Asia​.

Historical Performance

• Record Sales: Highest-ever domestic sales in motorcycles, premium bikes, and three-wheelers, with a market share increase in motorcycles.
• Export Resilience: Bajaj Auto’s exports remained stable despite global challenges​

Risk Factors

• Energy and Emissions Management
• Supply Chain Resilience

Bajaj Auto Share Price Target 2024 to 2040

Key Assumptions:

2024 – 2025

• Starting Price: ₹11,495.25 (as of October 2024)
• Estimated Growth Rate: 10-12% annually, given the company’s strong domestic sales, growing exports, and expansion into electric vehicles.
• Target Price for 2025: ₹12,600 – ₹13,000.

2026 – 2030

• Key Factors: Continued growth in the electric vehicle (EV) segment, premium motorcycles, and international markets. If Bajaj Auto can expand its EV portfolio and capture significant market share in emerging markets, this could lead to consistent growth.
• Estimated Growth Rate: 8-10% annually due to possible market saturation and competition.
• Target Price for 2030: ₹18,500 – ₹20,000.

2031 – 2035

• Key Factors: By this period, Bajaj Auto could face more competition in the EV sector. However, if the company stays ahead with innovations and maintains market dominance, the stock may grow steadily.
• Estimated Growth Rate: 7-9% annually, as global EV adoption could plateau by then.
• Target Price for 2035: ₹26,000 – ₹28,000.

2036 – 2040

• Key Factors: By 2040, technological advancements, market disruptions, or new market entries could shift the landscape. Bajaj Auto’s ability to innovate and adapt will dictate its future growth.
• Estimated Growth Rate: 5-7% annually.
• Target Price for 2040: ₹35,000 – ₹38,000.

Bajaj Auto Image